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NHL playoff odds for 2026-27: 84 games, the wild card rule, and why I don't trust my own model in September

NHL playoff odds for 2026-27: 84 games, the wild card rule, and why I don't trust my own model in September

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5 min read
NBA play-in odds are not playoff odds: simulating the play-in tournament instead of guessing it

NBA play-in odds are not playoff odds: simulating the play-in tournament instead of guessing it

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5 min read
Correct score, BTTS and Over/Under probabilities with Dixon-Coles: what I learned building it for MLS and Liga MX

Correct score, BTTS and Over/Under probabilities with Dixon-Coles: what I learned building it for MLS and Liga MX

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5 min read
A/B testing: when the standard test is the wrong tool

A/B testing: when the standard test is the wrong tool

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7 min read
Building a Real-Time Price Anomaly Detector with Python, SerpApi, and Robust Statistics

Building a Real-Time Price Anomaly Detector with Python, SerpApi, and Robust Statistics

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11 min read
5 ML Math Concepts I Stopped Memorizing (And Started Actually Using)

5 ML Math Concepts I Stopped Memorizing (And Started Actually Using)

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3 min read
Does Market Fear Actually Predict Trader Losses? I Tested It With Real Hyperliquid Data

Does Market Fear Actually Predict Trader Losses? I Tested It With Real Hyperliquid Data

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4 min read
The Fill Model Is Where Backtests Quietly Cheat

The Fill Model Is Where Backtests Quietly Cheat

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4 min read
Mean vs Median: When to Use Each, and When the Answer Changes

Mean vs Median: When to Use Each, and When the Answer Changes

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16 min read
Moving Averages: Smoothing a Series Without Smoothing Away the Truth

Moving Averages: Smoothing a Series Without Smoothing Away the Truth

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17 min read
What Is a P-Value? Worked by Shuffling Nine Real Orders 126 Ways

What Is a P-Value? Worked by Shuffling Nine Real Orders 126 Ways

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15 min read
Percentiles, the IQR and the 1.5 Outlier Rule: How to Flag a Bad Row

Percentiles, the IQR and the 1.5 Outlier Rule: How to Flag a Bad Row

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17 min read
What a Clean Equity Curve Doesn't Prove

What a Clean Equity Curve Doesn't Prove

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4 min read
What Shuffling Your Trade History Actually Tells You (And What It Doesn't)

What Shuffling Your Trade History Actually Tells You (And What It Doesn't)

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4 min read
A/B Testing for Analysts: Sample Size First, Result Second

A/B Testing for Analysts: Sample Size First, Result Second

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16 min read
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