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Does a Form 144 filing mean the stock will drop? I checked 75,654 insider sale notices

Does a Form 144 filing mean the stock will drop? I checked 75,654 insider sale notices

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4 min read
Before I Compared the Models, I Had to Decide What Not to Count

Before I Compared the Models, I Had to Decide What Not to Count

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6 min read
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: How Momentum Turns Random Walks into Efficient Sampling

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: How Momentum Turns Random Walks into Efficient Sampling

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8 min read
Score Matching: Why Learning the Gradient of a Log-Density Beats Learning the Density Itself

Score Matching: Why Learning the Gradient of a Log-Density Beats Learning the Density Itself

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8 min read
We tested 12 machine-learning models on the stock market. None of them worked, and we published everything.

We tested 12 machine-learning models on the stock market. None of them worked, and we published everything.

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3 min read
How Do You Show Two Training Runs Are Equal? A Paired Test on Unseen Text, Using an NPU vs GPU Case

How Do You Show Two Training Runs Are Equal? A Paired Test on Unseen Text, Using an NPU vs GPU Case

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3 min read
Grid Trading Bot Backtest: How to Test One Honestly

Grid Trading Bot Backtest: How to Test One Honestly

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7 min read
Stein Variational Gradient Descent: Particles That Repel Their Way to the Posterior

Stein Variational Gradient Descent: Particles That Repel Their Way to the Posterior

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9 min read
Does copying Congress's stock trades work? I tested 17,859 disclosures

Does copying Congress's stock trades work? I tested 17,859 disclosures

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3 min read
Optimal Transport: Why Wasserstein Distance Sees Geometry That KL Divergence Misses

Optimal Transport: Why Wasserstein Distance Sees Geometry That KL Divergence Misses

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9 min read
Checking the math with code: simulating 200,000 NFL seasons in Python

Checking the math with code: simulating 200,000 NFL seasons in Python

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2 min read
A Tiny Probability Puzzle Every Developer Should Try

A Tiny Probability Puzzle Every Developer Should Try

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3 min read
Why Graduate Students Pay $70 an Hour to Ask Which Statistical Test to Use

Why Graduate Students Pay $70 an Hour to Ask Which Statistical Test to Use

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5 min read
Doubly Robust Estimation: When Two Imperfect Models Still Get Causality Right

Doubly Robust Estimation: When Two Imperfect Models Still Get Causality Right

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8 min read
How many perfect seasons should a 32-team league expect? A quick binomial estimate

How many perfect seasons should a 32-team league expect? A quick binomial estimate

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1 min read
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